(RALEIGH) -- If current trends hold, the 2012 election could be historic. Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling says with Republican Pat McCrory leading in the governor's race and Democrat President Barack Obama leading in polling for the White House, it would mean a GOP candidate would win the North Carolina Governor's Mansion without coattails.

"The last three times we did that were years where simultaneously the GOP presidential candidate won by 40 points, 24 points and 16 points.  That means Pat McCrory would be the first Republican to be elected not on coattails as governor, really since the 19th Century," said Jensen.

According to Jensen, McCrory currently leads incumbent Bev Perdue as well as other Democrats such as Attorney General Roy Cooper, should Perdue decide not to run. The last time a Republican won the Governor's mansion with the Democrats winning the presidential vote was 1896.