ELON -- Nearly half of North Carolina voters likely to head to the polls this fall oppose HB2, the so-called “bathroom bill” that’s brought national attention to the state since its passage earlier this year. But despite distaste among many voters for the controversial legislation, one of its chief supporters has reason for some optimism in his re-election prospects, according to the latest Elon University Poll.

Republican Gov. Pat McCrory has built a narrow lead over his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Roy Cooper, in North Carolina’s 2016 gubernatorial election with a little less than two months to go until Election Day. McCrory is in front of Cooper 49-46 percent among likely voters, having moved ahead of his challenger since a spring Elon Poll that found Cooper with a 6-point lead over the incumbent governor, with his lead within the survey’s margin of error.

Both McCrory and Cooper have strong support with their party. 92 percent of Republicans are backing McCrory while 87 percent of Democrats favor Cooper. McCrory is winning 60 percent of the crucial independent vote within the sample.

“McCrory has seen a notable surge since the Elon Poll surveyed the race in the spring,” said Jason Husser, assistant professor of political science and the director of the Elon University Poll. “Both candidates are running competitive and expensive campaigns, so it’s likely that this race for governor will remain one of the closest in the country right up until voters head to the polls in November.”

The campaigns are also divided on race. Cooper is winning 93 percent of African-American likely voters. However, McCrory leads Cooper 63 percent to 37 percent among whites. A slight gender gap exists. McCrory is winning men by 10 points but losing women by 7 points.

The U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Richard Burr and his Democratic challenger, Deborah Ross, is a virtual dead heat, with 44.4 percent of likely voters expected to choose Ross, compared to 43.4 percent who are backing Burr, now seeking a third term in the U.S. Senate. Ross has gained ground since the April Elon University Poll, which found her trailing 37-33 percent among registered voters.

Husser said the reversal in the U.S. Senate race is surprising, particularly given that fellow Republican Pat McCrory has improved his standing. Future polling could help provide more insight, he said.

“We may have simply recorded a short-term blip, but we also might have found an emerging trend,” Husser said. “We suspect Burr’s numbers have potential to shift in coming weeks given a campaign cycle with huge advertising budgets.”

The live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 799 registered voters was conducted from Sept. 12-16, 2016. Of those respondents, 644 said they are likely to vote in the November election. Survey results in this news release present responses from those self-identified registered voters who say they are likely to vote in the Nov. 8 election and has a margin of error of +/- 3.86 percentage points.